Three departments released a new photovoltaic policy, and the photovoltaic manufacturing industry ushered in a new round of reshuffle.
On the evening of June 1st, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and the National Energy Administration issued a new photovoltaic policy, which put the photovoltaic industry in China, which has developed rapidly in recent years, on a sudden stop. Although the energy authorities released the signal that "the scale of photovoltaic development will be strictly controlled" earlier this year, and the industry had psychological expectations for this, after the official introduction of this policy document with stricter degree than expected, the whole industry was filled with sorrow for a while, and they all felt "winter overnight".
The Notice on Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2018 (Development and Reform Energy [2018] No.823) jointly issued by the above three departments proposes that the index of ordinary photovoltaic power plants and distributed photovoltaic power plants will not be arranged this year for the time being, and the benchmark electricity price and distributed power subsidy of newly put into operation will be reduced by 5 cents from the date of publication. This means that in the face of the huge renewable energy subsidy gap, China’s photovoltaic power generation market supervision policy has ushered in major changes, and strict control of scale and indicators has become the main theme. In addition, photovoltaic poverty alleviation continues to receive support.
"This year’s arrangement is not to say that we are controlling the development of photovoltaics. For these projects with advanced technology and high quality that do not require (national) financial subsidies, we have left a hole, which is unlimited in scale. This place can be arranged by itself according to the situation of market consumption and local financial resources. " For the above policy adjustments, Li Chuangjun, deputy director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, explained in an interview with CCTV on June 2.
Tightening photovoltaic policy under the huge subsidy gap
For the photovoltaic industry, strict control of the New Deal is like a sudden basin of ice water.
The reason why it is called "the most stringent in history" is that distributed photovoltaics, which were not limited by indicators, have been brought into scale management, and according to the construction progress in the first five months, there are few indicators of 10GW left in the rest of this year. After five months, the benchmark on-grid tariff will be lowered again, which breaks the previous practice of one-year adjustment, which means that the frequency of tariff adjustment will be accelerated in the future. In addition, the index of ordinary ground power station will be suspended, and the scale and start-up time of the leader project will be further studied according to the optimization of photovoltaic power generation scale. The above adjustments will be implemented from the date of issuance (that is, May 31st), which means there is no buffer period.
When talking about the background of the document, the New Energy Department of the National Energy Administration and the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission said that the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China ranked first in the world for five consecutive years, and the cumulative installed capacity ranked first in the world for three consecutive years. Photovoltaic technology is constantly innovating and breaking through, leading the world, and has formed a complete photovoltaic industry chain with international competitiveness. Photovoltaic power generation has played an important role in promoting energy transformation. However, "there are also problems such as the problem of light abandonment in photovoltaic power generation and the continuous expansion of subsidy demand, which directly affect the healthy and orderly development of the photovoltaic industry. It is necessary to adjust development ideas and improve development policies according to the new situation and new requirements."
Specifically, the New Deal pointed out that according to the actual development of the industry, the construction scale of ordinary photovoltaic power plants in 2018 will not be arranged for the time being. Before the state has issued a document to start the construction of ordinary power stations, all localities may not arrange the construction of ordinary power stations that require state subsidies in any form. This means that the local indicators issued by Zhejiang and other provinces have failed. The Energy Bureau interprets this move as "not only alleviating the consumption problem, but also leaving room for the development of advanced technology and high-quality photovoltaic power generation projects."
For distributed photovoltaics with a 3.7-fold year-on-year increase in installed capacity last year, the New Deal requires standardizing its development: "This year, about 10 million kilowatts will be arranged to support the construction of distributed photovoltaic projects. Considering the construction of distributed photovoltaics this year, it is clear that distributed photovoltaic power generation projects connected to the grid before May 31 (inclusive) are included in the scope of scale management recognized by the state, and projects that are not included in the scope of scale management recognized by the state are supported by local governments according to law. " However, according to industry analysis, before the May 31st node, China has (or is close to) completed the total amount of 10GW distributed photovoltaic. Distributed projects that exceed the total amount can only be subsidized by local governments or wait for next year’s indicators.
As for the on-grid tariff, the New Deal proposes "two reductions and one unchanged", namely, reducing the benchmark tariff of photovoltaic power stations in the first to third resource areas by 5 points, reducing the subsidy standard of distributed photovoltaic power generation by 5 points, and maintaining the tariff of photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects unchanged.
It is generally believed in the industry that the fundamental reason for the introduction of such a severe New Deal is that the subsidy pressure is too great and it is difficult to solve in the short term. Over the years, China has mainly adopted the way of "benchmark electricity price+financial subsidy" to promote the development of renewable energy industry. The subsidy funds come from the surcharge of renewable energy electricity price and are collected with the electricity fee. However, with the rapid increase of photovoltaic installed capacity, the subsidy gap continues to expand. According to statistics, by the end of 2017, the subsidy gap of renewable energy has reached 100 billion yuan.
In this regard, the New Energy Department of the National Energy Administration and the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission also stressed when answering a reporter’s question that projects that do not require state subsidies should be actively encouraged. At present, photovoltaic power generation faces both the practical problem of insufficient subsidies and the long-term development problem of insufficient market competitiveness. While various measures are taken to reduce the construction cost of photovoltaic power generation itself, local governments are encouraged to introduce policies to support the development of photovoltaic industry, reduce non-technical costs and reduce the intensity of subsidies. For photovoltaic power generation projects that do not need central financial subsidies, local governments can arrange their own construction according to the conditions for receiving electricity from the grid and relevant requirements.
Forcing backward production capacity and promoting cheap internet access with strict policies
Many analysts predict that the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in China may drop to about 35GW in 2018 due to the influence of the New Deal. In contrast, the newly installed capacity in China last year was 53.06GW.
The sharp shrinkage of newly installed capacity will undoubtedly put tremendous pressure on the domestic photovoltaic manufacturing industry, and a new round of industry reshuffle triggered by equipment price reduction is inevitable. Large enterprises that are in the first echelon of the industry and have strong cost control ability can get support from foreign markets, while small and medium-sized enterprises find it difficult to survive the cold winter of the industry.
Ma Wei, an analyst at SOLARZOOM New Energy Think Tank, believes that the intention of this policy adjustment is to reduce the subsidy gap of incremental projects and make the photovoltaic industry develop healthier. The competent authorities are "actively piercing the bubble" to avoid the greater risk of subsidy gap. For the global energy pattern, this round of photovoltaic "big cycle of cheap internet access" which will be launched soon after 2020 will also start the replacement of the second generation energy with kerosene gas as the core by the third generation energy with "scenery storage" as the core.
When commenting on the New Deal, China Photovoltaic Industry Association also pointed out that under the new normal that the subsidy pressure is too high and the country is still vigorously reducing the social electricity cost, it is bound to be unsustainable to make great strides. In the last round of changes in the photovoltaic industry, a number of truly high-quality enterprises were tempered, and it is hoped that this round of changes will promote the whole industry to improve itself again before the parity online adult ceremony.
The Paper reporter Yang Wei