National Development Institute-Press Conference of Percent ＂Investor Sentiment and Consumer Confidence in China＂ was held in Beijing.

　　　　

　　　The conference was held by Assistant Dean of National Development Institute of Peking University,BiMBAFan Baoqun, Executive Vice President of Business School, presided over.　

　　　　 Assistant Dean of Peking University National Development Institute,BiMBAFan Baoqun, Executive Vice President of Business School　

　　Yao Yang, president of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, said in his speech that the National Development Institute of Peking University has been committed to promoting social progress for many years, and the academic research and policy research here are very close to the reality of China. Today, the two major indexes jointly launched by the National Development Institute of Peking University and the percentage company are the combination of academic research and policy research. Whether it is the consumer confidence index or the investor sentiment index, it is of great guiding significance to judge the macroeconomic situation and understand the financial market. These two indexes have received technical support from percentage companies, and also reflect the thickness of scientific research in the National Development Institute. I hope to persist in doing so and provide reference for government and private sector decision-making.　

　　　　　 Yao Yang, Dean of National Development Research Institute of Peking University.　　　

　　Co-publisher of the "Investor Sentiment and Consumer Confidence in China" Index-Chairman and Chairman of the Percentage CompanyCEODr. Su Meng said that since its establishment, the percentage point has been focusing on the combination of Industry-University-Research’s use and joint exploration with the national think tank Peking University National Development Institute. It can not only build a new index from the long-term and multi-dimensional observation perspective of China investors and consumers through new data and new technologies, but also stand at the historical turning point of the country’s macroeconomic growth and development pattern, bringing new discoveries to the index research field, and will also shorten the use chain of Industry-University-Research and realize the closed loop of data value. Really applied to solve practical problems in vertical fields, it provides a more cutting-edge and scientific measurement tool for understanding investors’ wishes or investors’ market trend expectations and consumer confidence.　

　　　　 Chairman and chairman of percentage companyCEODr Su Meng.　　　　

　　It is reported that the National Development Institute and Percentage introduced big data and artificial intelligence technology into the research of the two major indexes for the first time, which changed the traditional research methods based on point and sampling. In the era of consumption upgrading, people’s emotions and behaviors can be mapped in the digital world by relying on the scientific and rigorous research methods and index system of the National Development Institute of Peking University, the powerful natural language processing technology, machine learning ability and the deep integration of more than 100 million pieces of data. In the future, percentage points will also provide technical support for academic research to continue to play its role.　

　　Shen Yanzhu, a professor of economics at the National Development Institute of Peking University, introduced "China investor sentiment index". She pointed out that complicated "investor sentiment" was often at work behind seemingly illogical events in China stock market. In addition to hard indicators to measure financial market volatility, soft indicators such as "investor sentiment" also have very important value.　

　　Shen Yan said that China investor sentiment index can reflect it more accurately.2008Since 2000AMajor events, such as the lowest point of the index, are2015year6-7Monthly stock market crash, the second lowest point is2016Fused at the beginning of the year. The overnight mood calculated by investors’ text information between the closing of the stock market and the opening of the next day shows that the overnight mood is significantly more positive, more calm and objective than the all-day mood, and it is more likely to contain information about future market expectations. Comparing sentiment index in different industries, recently,threeIn, the industry with the highest average mood was medicine and the lowest was real estate. The smallest volatility is in the manufacturing industry, and the largest is in the financial industry. Teacher Shen said that the research on the secondary sub-index of the industry has just started, and it is necessary to further study the interaction between emotion and market.　

　　Shen Yan also introduced the calculation method of "Investor sentiment index", pointing out that the index is constructed by collecting text data related to the sentiment of retail investors in the financial market and adopting deep learning methods such as convolutional neural network. The preliminary study shows that the index can not only reflect investors’ emotional reaction to the market situation that has happened, but also contain information that can predict the market return, fluctuation and trading volume, which may provide new reference for the government and the private sector.　

　　　　 Shen Yan, Professor of Economics, National Development Institute of Peking University　　　

　　Song Guoqing, a famous macroeconomist and professor of economics at the National Development Institute of Peking University, pointed out in his subsequent comments that although the proportion of capital market in the financing field of China’s economy is still relatively small, the financial market will become more and more important to the economy in the future. Every day, the financial market will produce a large amount of information, so how investors can get important information quickly in a short time becomes particularly critical, which highlights the important role of a good measurement index. Teacher Song believes that it is not with "investor sentiment index" that you can directly go to the capital market to make money, but accumulate it for a long time, which is very valuable for judging the macroeconomic situation.　

　　　　 Song Guoqing, a professor of economics at the National Development Institute of Peking University and a famous macroeconomist.　　　　

　　Ma Jingjing, assistant professor of management at the National Development Institute of Peking University, mainly introduced the "Consumer Confidence Index". She said that the consumer confidence index is an indicator that reflects consumers’ subjective feelings about the overall economic development and the development of various consumption fields in a country or a region. This subjective feeling includes two dimensions, one is current satisfaction and the other is expected change. The three characteristics of the "National Hundred Consumer Confidence Index" launched today are: a representative large sample survey across the country; Big data public opinion analysis, combined analysis of large and small data; Covers eight to nine of China’s most important consumer sectors. Ma Jingjing said that the combination of subjective data of Guobai Consumer Confidence Index and objective data in various fields can well predict possible changes in this field in the future.　

　　　　　 Ma Jingjing, Assistant Professor of Management, National Development Institute of Peking University　　　

　　Ms. Du Xiaomeng, the chief data scientist of percentage points, gave a live demonstration of the consumer confidence index. From her demonstration, we can see that people are full of confidence in the overall expectation of the future, but there are some differences in consumer satisfaction indexes of different ages and incomes, and the consumer satisfaction indexes of different regions also show different characteristics. For example, the satisfaction of high-income people is significantly higher than that of low-income and middle-income people, and the index is nearly high13A little, and the most dissatisfied is the middle-income group, which is lower than the low-income group in medical care, education and catering.　

　　　　　 Du Xiaomeng, chief data scientist of percentile.　　　　

　　Zhao Bo, an assistant professor of economics at the National Development Institute of Peking University, pointed out in his comments that the consumer confidence index is particularly important for China today. Today, consumption plays a more and more important role in the troika that drives China’s economic growth. The national consumer confidence index released this time has a large sample, and the sampling is representative and scientific. The frequency of quarterly updates is consistent with other national macro-statistical data, which is convenient for real-time economic forecasting. In addition, Guobai Consumer Confidence Index is also combined with big data analysis. In the future, as long as more human and material resources are invested, higher frequency data expansion will be achieved.　

　　　　 Zhao Bo, Assistant Professor of Economics, National Development Institute of Peking University.　　　　　

　　At the end of the event, a ceremony was held to release two major indexes, expecting that these two indexes would bring more value to the society.　　　

　　

　　

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 　

　　Attached:　

　　　　

　　Brief introduction of "Investor sentiment index"　

　　　　

　　·What is China investor sentiment index?　

　　China investor sentiment index(China Investors’ Sentiment Index, CISI)Based on the collection of hundreds of millions of financial text big data that can reflect investors’ emotions on the internet, the deep learning method is used to measure.2008Index of investor sentiment in China since.　

　　　　

　　·Why do you need China investor sentiment index?　

　　The frequent occurrence of events such as "black swan" and "grey rhinoceros" puts forward new requirements for understanding and forecasting market conditions. In addition to the common "hard" indicators used to measure the fundamentals of economy and market, regulators, policy makers, investors, enterprises, financial institutions and academic circles urgently need emotional "soft" indicators that can reflect the current and future fluctuations of financial markets. However, sentiment index, an existing investor in China, either uses limited questionnaires to collect information, or has low frequency, narrow geographical area, lack of continuity, or contains other information besides emotions, which cannot meet the demand.　

　　　　

　　·Where is China investor sentiment index new?　

　　(1)　　　　New team. The research team consists of university scholars (professors from National Development Research Institute of Peking University, Duke University, postgraduate students from National Development Research Institute of Peking University) and big data analysis companies, with Google senior engineers as algorithm consultants.　

　　(2)　　　　New data: the whole network collects relevant text data of all listed companies.　

　　(3)　　　　New system: Describe investor sentiment in China from three aspects: industry, time frequency and sector.　

　　(4)　　　　Method New: Combining human wisdom with deep learning, support vector machine and convolutional neural network are used to calculate investor sentiment.　

　　(5)　　　　New products: a dictionary of financial sentiment in China; A set of indices involving various sectors, industries and different frequencies.　

　　　　

　　·What is the sentiment index index system of China investors?　

　　It involves a first-class index and a second-class sub-index by industry, time frequency and sector. Among them, the industry is divided into eight categories; The time span is divided into half an hour, days, Zhou Du and months; Plate sub-Shanghai stock exchange50Emotional sub-index, CSI500Emotional sub-index, etc.　

　　　　

　　·What did China investor sentiment index reflect?　

　　As a measure of investor sentiment, CISIProvide new information for understanding the investment will or investors’ market trend expectations. The index can predict the market yield, fluctuation and trading volume to some extent.　

　　　　

　　·How can China investor sentiment index use it?　

　　(one) provides a new perspective for policy makers and regulators to judge market trends.　

　　(2) provides a new starting point for the academic community to understand the law of market operation.　

　　(three) provides a new reference for business operators, financial investment and wealth managers.　

　　　　　

　　　Brief Introduction of "Guobai China Consumer Confidence Index"　

　　　　

　　Consumer confidence index (Consumer Confidence Index,CCI) is an index that comprehensively reflects and quantifies consumers’ subjective feelings about economic prospects, income levels, income expectations and consumer psychological state, and is mainly composed of current satisfaction index and future expectation index. There are mature consumer confidence indexes such as Michigan Index and Conference Board Index in the world. However, due to the uniqueness of China’s national conditions, these index systems cannot comprehensively and systematically describe the current situation of consumer confidence in China.　

　

　　Based on this, the National Development Research Institute of Peking University and the percentage group jointly launched the "National Hundred China Consumer Confidence Index". Through the nationwide representative large sample survey and big data public opinion analysis, we can understand consumers’ satisfaction and future expectations for the overall economic development and many important consumption areas, and then reflect and predict the macroeconomic indicators and consumption situation in China, so as to achieve cross-regional, cross-population and cross-time comparisons and assist economic entities such as governments at all levels and enterprises in making decisions.　

　　　　

　　The national large sample survey comprehensively depicts consumer confidence.　

　　　　

　

　　Big data public opinion analysis deeply digs into consumer attitudes.　

　　　　

　

　　　　

　　According to the above index system, we have completed2017In the third and fourth quarters of 2008, the "China Consumer Confidence Index" was analyzed, and through multi-dimensional comparison, the index was deeply interpreted, the economic phenomenon behind the index was excavated, and the macroeconomic environment and consumption status of China were comprehensively portrayed. In the future, the "China Consumer Confidence Index" will be released quarterly, and a mature index system will be gradually established, which will become an important indicator to predict the economic trend and consumption trend of China.